The Rising Tide of AI-Powered Holiday Shopping: What Black Friday 2025 Means for Marketers

By Mike Rowan

With almost 30 years of experience in the marketing world, not many things jump off the page to me anymore. But, when I saw a headline that AI-driven eCommerce traffic jumped 805% on Black Friday, I was floored.

Each year brings new shifts in how consumers browse, compare, and buy during the holiday season. For many companies, these shifts feel like slight oscillations… but this year is different. The growth of AI-powered shopping throughout the 2025 holiday season reveals a major turning point in consumer behavior, and the initial data makes it clear that brands that are slow to adapt will lose visibility and revenue to competitors who embrace AI-led marketing. 

This shift isn’t just your run-of-the-mill traffic, either. Organic search has traditionally offered the most highly qualified traffic, as it literally taps into user intent since the consumer is typing in exactly what they are looking for, or how to solve a specific pain point. 

With this shift, this highly convertible traffic is now starting to come from a different source altogether, which requires a sharp pivot in the way that we think as marketers. Traditional search will still exist, and the optimizations that generate this traffic will still be very important. However, there are different tactics and strategies that will need to be bundled onto existing organic search activities to serve both traditional SEO as well as GEO (Generative Engine Optimization).

Let’s run through some of the stats we’re seeing in the marketplace: 

What the Data Says: Explosive AI Growth

• Adobe expects traffic from AI sources (large-language models, chatbots, browsers) to surge 515–520% compared to the 2024 holiday period. 
• In July 2025 alone, generative-AI traffic to U.S. retail sites was up 4,700% YoY — a clear sign that AI-driven shopping behavior is not limited to the holidays. 
• According to Deloitte, 33% of consumers plan to use generative AI tools during this holiday season — more than double the rate from 2024. 
• A separate study finds that 56% of U.S. consumers intend to use AI chatbots for price comparisons and deal-finding; 47% want AI to summarize reviews; 33% plan to use AI for building shopping lists. 

These numbers signal more than just a trend: AI is rapidly becoming a default part of the consumer shopping journey.

How AI Is Reshaping the Holiday Shopping Journey

With more shoppers using AI tools as their entry point for finding products, the discovery process is changing quickly. Instead of searching manually for product comparisons, many consumers can now simply ask an AI assistant to evaluate brands, weigh pros and cons, or organize options by price and features.

As a result, the top of the funnel is no longer dominated by traditional search engines or paid media campaigns. Discovery now happens in a captive ecosystem where virtually all data is aggregated and analyzed in one place, and then firm recommendations are given based on that data.

AI is also transforming the middle of the funnel. Shoppers want personalized guidance rather than long pages of information. AI excels here. It pulls patterns from customer behavior, predicts preferences, and provides tailored recommendations in real time, all without requiring extra clicks or heavy reading.

At the bottom of the funnel, AI reduces friction through Chatbots that can answer questions instantly. The experience feels more fluid and efficient, which increases the chances of ultimately generating a conversion.

What This Means for Companies That Are Slow to Adopt AI in Their Marketing

Brands that do not aggressively pivot towards AI-led marketing face several real risks.

Visibility is shifting

If your product information is not optimized for AI interpretation, your brand becomes invisible to the rising volume of AI assisted shoppers. AI models prioritize structured data, clear descriptions, current pricing, and accurate images. Companies that still rely on outdated product pages or only traditional SEO tactics will begin to lose ground.

Customer expectations are rising

Consumers are becoming more comfortable with AI tailored recommendations and faster decision support. When they encounter brands that cannot deliver the same level of ease or personalization, the experience feels outdated which leads to lower engagement and lower conversion rates.

Early investors are seeing measurable gains

Studies show that companies using AI have seen sales accelerate. It is almost unprecedented (with the exception of mobile, possibly) for a single digital technology shift to lift revenue this directly.

The gap between AI-ready and AI-avoidant companies will widen quickly. This is not a five-year transition. Much of the shift is happening right now, driven by consumer comfort with tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, and embedded AI-supported software such as agents and shopping engines.

Ultimately, brands that delay AI adoption will spend more on acquisition, generate less visibility in emerging channels, and struggle to compete during peak buying windows like Black Friday and Cyber Week.

What Marketers and Leadership Teams Need to be Doing Right Now

There is still time to move ahead of competitors, but the window is closing fast. Companies need to take several immediate steps to prepare for an AI-first holiday shopping environment.

Given the rapid adoption and performance potential of AI-driven commerce, here are strategic moves companies should prioritize now:

1. Optimize your digital presence for AI discovery

AI tools rely heavily on clear product feeds, structured data, inventory accuracy, and transparent descriptions. Marketers should audit their content with these needs in mind. The more interpretable your information is, the more likely your products will surface in AI-driven recommendations.

2. Build visibility within GEO and AI search results

Generative Engine Optimization is already becoming the next frontier of search strategy. Companies should develop content that answers product questions directly, uses clean structure, and aligns with what AI models want to serve to users. Without this, brands risk being excluded from AI-powered comparison lists and deal roundups.

3. Begin testing paid AI advertising options

Several platforms now offer paid placements that are shown within AI assistants, smart search responses, and conversational recommendation engines. These formats will grow quickly, and brands that test them early will benefit from lower costs and stronger performance data.

The Cost of Waiting Is Rising

Companies that continue treating AI as a long-term curiosity will struggle against competitors who treat it as a core capability. As AI becomes a natural extension of how people shop online, brands that fail to adapt will lose visibility during the most important commercial moments of the year.

Black Friday and Cyber Week used to be dominated by traditional search ads, email blasts, and promotional landing pages. In 2025 and beyond, those tactics still matter, but they no longer represent the full path to purchase. A growing portion of shoppers will enter the journey through AI-driven interfaces, and brands must design for that reality.

If your company has not yet built a strategy that incorporates GEO, paid AI placements, conversational commerce, and AI-powered personalization, the time to act is now. The data is clear, the consumer behavior shift is already underway, and early adopters are gaining ground quickly.

KPItarget is on the leading edge of generating and implementing AI-led marketing strategies for our clients. We would love to show you how we can position your brand in a way that leverages these evolving technologies into increased revenue and profitability. Please feel free to reach out below, or you can email me directly to set up a time to chat.